WHATEVER happens to the UK economy and new van market in 2015 the used market will remain in a ‘win win’ position.
If the economy slows down and companies start to feel the pinch the majority of SMEs who buy the majority of used vans in the UK who need a replacement vehicle will buy a model of five years of age and older.
This market dynamic will ensure a high demand for used vans and therefore high prices
This will cause a strong demand for used vans and prices are likely to remain at their current record highs.
If the economy continues to grow, the SMEs will look to upgrade their vehicles with newer sub five year old vans and potentially will buy more than one to meet the increased demand for their products.
This market dynamic will ensure a high demand for used vans and therefore high prices.
The SMEs that can afford a new van generally buy a used van and invest the rest of their cash into their business, while many who would like a new van still can’t get finance approval, so have to buy a used vehicle.
It means that the used market is in a unique position in 2015: whatever happens to the economy, used prices should remain at or close to their current record high.
The recent rise in new van sales in 2013 and 2014 purchased on a typical five year replacement cycle will only impact the used market in the form of higher volumes of used vans in 2018 and beyond.
In the meantime, used volumes coming back from the major fleets are manageable and so will not compromise values.